After experiencing an extended period of scandal and turmoil, the Golden Globe Awards are attempting to make a comeback. Despite facing accusations of racism, bribery, and questionable nominations, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hopes this year’s ceremony will restore the event to its former prestige. However, whether the public will tune in to watch and who among the nominees will come out as winners remain.
Best film (drama)
The ongoing debate over which films will be recognized by awards bodies during this season has been fueled by the impact of the pandemic on the box office. There is speculation that there may be more emphasis on rewarding blockbuster films that were able to attract large audiences and keep many people employed in the industry. While Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis biopic might have been a contender in a different year, it is uncertain whether Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick, which focused heavily on spectacle, would have been considered. If the voters base their decisions on commercial success, it could be a close race between Top Gun: Maverick and James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which has been climbing the box office charts. However, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) may opt for Steven Spielberg’s The Fabulous, an autobiographical film that may not have done well in theaters but whose message about the power of film will resonate with them. Todd Field’s Tár, a character study, is considered too complex for the HFPA voters to understand fully.
Will win: The Fabelmans
Should win: Tár
Should be nominated: Empire of Light
Best actress (drama)
Although the complexity of Tár might be a challenge for some voters, they will likely find it hard to resist the outstanding performance of its star, Cate Blanchett, who plays a morally conflicted composer losing control. Blanchett has a history of receiving accolades from the Golden Globe Awards, winning three times and being nominated eight times. With many experts agreeing that this is her best work, it is unlikely that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) will pass up the opportunity to add another award to her collection. The closest competition for Blanchett would be Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans. Still, the latter’s chances have been dampened as Blanchett has recently received most of the critics’ circle awards. Next in line would be Viola Davis for The Woman King, a film that is the mainstream crowd-pleaser that the Globes tend to favor. While Ana de Armas for Blonde, and Olivia Colman for Empire of Light, may be viewed as the highlights of their respective films, it is unlikely that it will be enough for them to win.
Will win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Should win: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Should be nominated: Florence Pugh, The Wonder
Best actor (drama)
It’s been a weak year for male actors in terms of awards contenders, with the female category having many more options. I think there are two possibilities for the best actor Oscar, given that the front-runner is in the comedy and musical category. One possibility is that Brendan Fraser will win for his role in “The Whale,” despite Fraser having spoken out against the HFPA and an alleged incident involving the former president and the film receiving criticisms for its theatricality and acting. The second and more likely scenario is that Austin Butler will win for his role as Elvis in a film that has gained momentum during awards season. With lower competition from Hugh Jackman, Bill Nighy, and Jeremy Pope, Butler’s path to the award may be easier.
Will win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Should win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Should be nominated: Jack Lowden, Benediction
Best film (comedy or musical)
There is a possibility that Martin McDonagh’s comedy “The Banshees of Inisherin,” which has received the most nominations, could win in this category. However, I believe that the category and the entire awards ceremony will be dominated by the film “Everything Everywhere All at Once”, a multiverse caper. Despite appearing to be a younger and more unconventional choice for the HFPA, the film tells a universal story of a family that resonates with many. Like many other winners in this category, it can also be considered more of a drama, which raises questions about the level of seriousness with which comedy is viewed at the Golden Globes. Other films such as “Glass Onion,” “Babylon,” and “Triangle of Sadness” are less likely to win as they may be seen as frivolous, divisive, or too strange.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Triangle of Sadness
Should be nominated: Bros
Best actress (comedy or musical)
Although Emma Thompson may no longer be a top contender in the best actress Oscar race, her outstanding performance in “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” has earned her recognition in this category. Given a different campaign and year, she may have had a more substantial chance of winning. However, it is likely that “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and Michelle Yeoh’s powerful performance will be the top choices. Yeoh has gained a lot of support for her performance and past work, and she is likely to become the second woman of Asian descent to win this category. Lesley Manville, who gave a worthy performance in “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” Anya Taylor-Joy in “The Menu,” and Margot Robbie in “Babylon” are likely to miss out.
Will win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Should be nominated: Amandla Stenberg, Bodies, Bodies, Bodies
Best actor (comedy or musical)
Colin Farrell will likely win in the comedy or musical category for his exceptional performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. The category is primarily comedy or musical, but Farrell’s dramatic scenes should give him an edge. This aligns with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s tendency to award big stars. He has very little competition as he is the only nominee with a chance of winning outside the Globes. Diego Calva from Babylon, Adam Driver from White Noise, Ralph Fiennes from The Menu, and Daniel Craig from Glass Onion have not expected contenders in the Oscar race.
Will win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should be nominated: Billy Eichner, Bros
Best supporting actress
Angela Bassett may have a chance to win for her outstanding performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever due to her accomplished career and the film’s impactful emotional impact. However, Jamie Lee Curtis will likely win due to her long career and attendance at the ceremony. Jamie Lee Curtis has won twice and been nominated five times in this category. Curtis also supported the Hollywood Foreign Press Association by participating in last year’s ceremony. Although Kerry Condon is expected to receive a best supporting actress nomination at the Oscars for her role in The Banshees of Inisherin, she might not win in this category. Dolly de Leon’s nomination for Triangle of Sadness is already a win. Carey Mulligan’s nomination for She Said may be seen as a filler, given the film’s performance in other award ceremonies.
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Should be nominated: Judy Davis, Nitram
Best supporting actor
It’s unusual for a movie to have two nominations in the same category. Still, The Banshees of Inisherin has both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan nominated, which might work against each other. Brad Pitt’s nomination for Babylon may be mainly due to his fame, and Eddie Redmayne’s nomination for The Good Nurse is unlikely to win, as the film has not generated much buzz. Ultimately, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and academy voters often favor a compelling narrative, and Ke Huy Quan, who stars in Everything Everywhere All at Once, is a standout candidate. He is a former child star who struggled to find work in later years but was drawn back to acting for this film, in which he played multiple roles with distinction. He has already won several awards and is expected to receive several more. His speeches during the award circuit have been emotionally charged, which would make him a strong contender for this category.
Will win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should be nominated: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
There has been some criticism over the lack of diversity in this category, with no nominees from Sarah Polley for Women Talking or Gina Prince-Bythewood for The Woman King. However, it is a highly competitive year among the frontrunners, and the most prominent figures will likely win. James Cameron could be awarded for his work on Avatar: The Way of Water, Baz Luhrmann for his distinctive style in Elvis, and the Daniels for the innovative low-budget film Everything Everywhere All at Once. Martin McDonagh’s work on The Banshees of Inisherin may be too minor. However, it seems that Steven Spielberg will probably take the award. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association has not awarded him the best director award since Saving Private Ryan at the 1999 ceremony, despite five nominations in the years since. With his film The Fabelmans also set to win best drama, he is likely to be further recognized for his contributions to the industry, which the Golden Globe awards were created to honor.
Will win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Should win: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Should be nominated: Todd Field, Tár
Source: The Guardian